Is "Retreat" from Risky Coastal Areas the Answer?

NOAA GOES-13 image of Sandy at 6:02 a.m. EDT Tuesday (Oct. 30).
CREDIT: NOAA/NASA GOES Project

"New York and New Jersey residents, just coming to grips with the enormous costs of repairing homes damaged or destroyed by Hurricane Sandy, will soon face another financial blow: soaring flood insurance rates and heightened standards for rebuilding that threaten to make seaside living, once and for all, a luxury only the wealthy can afford." New York Times

We know that coastal communities are high risk locations.

Over many centuries coastal settlements and infrastructure has come under threat from storms and from storm surge.

The death toll was estimated between 8,000-12,000in a category 4 hurricane that hit Galveston, Texas on September 8, 1900. There was no warning system, and while people left the barrier island and resort most thought it was just a big thunderstorm. This deadliest hurricane in American history. So many people died that, "Funeral pyres were set up wherever the dead were found and burned for weeks after the storm. The authorities passed out free whiskey to sustain the distraught men conscripted for the gruesome work of collecting and burning the dead." Olafson, Steve (August 28, 2000). "Unimaginable devastation: Deadly storm came with little warning". Houston Chronicle.

'The Lake Okeechobee hurricane of 1928 was enormous. "As the category 4 hurricane moved inland, the strong winds piled the water up at the south end of the lake, ultimately topping the levee and rushing out onto the fertile land. Thousands of people, mostly non-white migrant farm workers, drowned as water several feet deep spread over an area approximately 6 miles deep and 75 miles long around the south end of the lake," according to the NOAA history of this event. The memorial report continues, "the effect of the flood was devastating, and the loss of life, both human and animal, was apocalyptic. Damages from this hurricane were estimated around 25 million dollars which, normalized for population, wealth, and inflation, would be around 16 billion dollars today (Landsea, 2002)."

Of course Katrina is the hurricane that grabbed all of our attention. On August 29, 2005, this category 5 storm hit New Orleans and the Gulf States with devastating impact on the city and its residents. Katrina took roughly 1,833 lives and cost $60 billion in insured losses (including flood damage) and cost the Gulf Coast states as a whole plus or minus $125 billion.

The so-called "Superstorm" Sandy on October 29, 2012 curved north-northwest and moved ashore near Atlantic City, New Jersey. It was not called a "hurricane" anymore but instead designated as a "post-tropical cyclone" albeit with hurricane-force winds. After causing damage and deaths in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the Bahamas it became a surprising and astonishing monster. Sandy affected 24 states as far as Wisconsin, killed roughly 131 people and cost roughly $71 billion in the latest estimates although I believe that's low. It flooded New York City tunnels and parts of the subway system for the first time  in history.

One of the suggestions made by several of our colleagues is to "retreat" from the beach, from barrier islands, and from dangerous coastal areas.

The question for you is this. "Is retreat from the coast a realistic solution?"

When you look at the long span of history of the American coastal zones storms with their wind, rain, and brutal storm surge have been a reality of living, building, and doing business on the coast.

You need to do this exercise. Examine all of the cities, roads, bridges, private homes, resorts, railroad tracks, airports (think La Guardia), ports, military bases, subways, power stations, factories, shopping malls, casinos, condos, gas stations, and other facilities that are now on the coast.

Now calculate: From the tip of Texas to Main how much would it cost and where would you move all of these people and infrastructure?

Finally, answer this question: How much retreat is realistic and how would policymakers implement it as a federal and state policy?



 

   

Projected Sea level rises in various American cities

We recently reviewed a wonderful web site at the New York Times that allows you to visualize in maps how much flooding would take place in various American cities under different time frames (in years) and scenarios of extent of rise based on historical records (from long, LONG ago) as well as current scientific calculations based on rising temperatures.

This is what the slider looks like that gives you scenario choices:

The maps are very visually compelling because they show under water land in light blue so you can actually imagine what the flooding would do to, say Charleston, South Carolina which under the worst scenario (25 ft rise) would be 80% flooded or Galveston, Texas which wouyld essentially be history - 100% under water.

The follwing is a partial screen shot of what these maps look like:

In the first partial frame you can see that Miami Beach is gone. Remember it's a barrier island so that's not surprising. But more daunting is that 39% of New York City would be flooded, something that seemed ridiculous a few years ago but is now not so far fetched after "Superstorm" Sandy.

Here are some flooding percentages based on the 100-300 year five foot projection:

• Miami is 20% flooded; Miami Beach 94% under water
• In Boston the city of Cambridge is 26% flooded
• While only 5% of Long Island, New York floods, "Barrier islands start to submerge; other islands in Middle and East Bays disappear. Shore of main island moves inland." You think Hurricane Sandy was devastating! You should look at the map of LI.
• Not surprisingly New Orleans 88% is flooded and that's a city that has been armored with levies dykes, and a massive pumping system. 
• In Tampa, Florida "Tampa Bay pushes inland one to four miles and eats away at MacDill Air Force Base. Beach communities flood."

For policymakers and students of Coastal Zone Management these numbers are at the very least interesting. We would add that they are actually critically important because ignoring data and science does not make bad things go away (just ask smokers who ignore the warnings.)

The real difficulty is that for politicians it is almost impossible to take significant action which would displace and move people and human structures from the threatened areas. The problem is that first of all no one believes any of this applies to THEM and second, it's a hundred years or a hundred THOUSAND years from now so "who cares!"

We have interviewed dozens of local government officials all of whom have expressed doubt that proactive action is realistic. People and local governments are simply too welded to their property and their beach/coastal location which they, of course deeply love.

If you want to play with this app you can go to http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/24/opinion/sunday/what-could-disappear.html

The maps are based on the following assumptions: "Notes: These maps are based on elevation data from the U.S. Geological Survey and tidal level data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Maps show the extent of potential flooding relative to local high tide.

The 25-foot sea level rise is based on a 2012 study in the journal Science, which augmented findings from a 2009 Nature study. They found that 125,000 years ago — a period that may have been warmer than today but cooler than what scientists expect later this century without sharp pollution cuts — the seas were about 20 to 30 feet higher than today. If temperatures climb as expected in this century, scientists believe it would take centuries for seas to rise 20 to 30 feet as a result, because ice sheet decay responds slowly to warming."

Coastal Lessons from a Superstorm

What we can learn from "Superstorm" Sandy

If you still wondered whether the coastal zones are at risk we assume that "Superstorm" Sandy, which hit the Northeast of the United States of America in November 2012, has convinced you.

 Here is a good description of the aftermath of this storm.

Sandy courtesy of NOAA

“More than 8 million people lost power, the result of wind, flooding and heavy snow. New York City's intricate subway system suffered the most extensive damage in its 108-year history. The New York Stock Exchange closed for two consecutive days, the first time that had happened because of weather since 1888. The surf in New York Harbor reached a record 32.5 feet -- 6.5 feet taller than a wave spawned by Hurricane Irene. A record high water level also was set at Battery Park in Manhattan, where the surge peaked at 13.88 feet.

Damage estimates put the cost of the storm around $50 billion, the second costliest storm in history, behind Hurricane Katrina.

At least 23 states felt the effects of Sandy, which morphed from a hurricane into a wintry superstorm stretching nearly 600 miles. Sandy was so big, forecasters said, that if it had been a country it would have ranked as the 20th-largest in the world.”  CNN US. http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/04/us/sandy-survivors-victims-narrative/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

What is the takeaway?

First of all, coastal living is NOT all about balmy breezes, gentle breakers, sandy beaches, and chill. Well, sometimes it is but all of that can change overnight because the ocean is a powerful force and weather systems can make it angry, destructive, and deadly.

Second, our infrastructure, building codes, and regulations are now outdated IF there is real climate change coming. A significant part of New York City was flooded including subways and tunnels. Moreover, electrical systems which are underground in New York were inundated, hospitals lost power, backup generators failed because they had been installed wrong.

A brouhaha also exploded over the loss of electrical power. “Damage from Superstorm Sandy to the electricity system in the U.S. Northeast exposed deep flaws in the structure and regulation of power utilities that will require a complete redesign, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said. But at least some members of one utility oversight panel later fired back, saying it was the governor who should take responsibility. "We're going to have to look at a ground-up redesign," Cuomo said while criticizing the utilities he called virtual monopolies run by nameless and faceless bureaucrats.” http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/nys-gov-cuomo-blasts-utilities-for-sandy-outages

Decades of regulation went dawn the drain so to speak when Sandy punished the local ecosystems with the storm dumping of fuel, toxic chemicals, litter, garbage, debris, asbestos, and every kind of dangerous, damaging flotsam into the ocean, beaches, coast, wetlands, and rivers.

For students of coastal policy this storm was a tragic but perfect case study of all the interconnected factors that constitute the challenge of Coastal Zone Management (CZM).

Recovery: Many agencies at the local, county, state and federal level are involved in responding to a coastal disaster. Private charities and non-profits as well as the Red Cross also mobilize.

Then there is NOAA. “NOAA continues to work in partnership with other federal, state, and local partners in response to the devastation of Hurricane Sandy. NOAA’s efforts are focused on navigation surveys to restore maritime commerce; aerial surveys to assist in those efforts and to aid on-the-ground responders from FEMA and local authorities; and in oil spill cleanup and damage assessment.  NOAA’s National Weather Service is also keeping authorities aware of changing weather conditions that could impact recovery and response efforts.” http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/weeklynews/oct12/nos-response-sandy.html