How Warn is it?

Carbon dioxide level reach record high

Steffen Schmidt

The news was everywhere on Friday, May 10, 2013. Reuters reported, “The amount of climate-warming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere topped 400 parts per million at a key observing station in Hawaii for the first time since measurement began in 1958, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. To many scientists, crossing the 400 ppm threshold” [there are 400 molecules of carbon dioxide for every million molecules in the air] is important mainly as a milestone according to James Butler of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/11/us-climate-carbon-idUSBRE9490YD20130511

Why is this so important?

Carbon dioxide is a heat-trapping greenhouse gas. That’s a problem. It also remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. Where does it come from? Largely from coal burning power plants, cars, trucks, trains, and airplanes. These are all processes that have been growing exponentially. Germany is abandoning nuclear power, has built two new coal plants and is now building six more. Japan's Ministry of Environment is ending a ban on construction of new coal-fired power plants largely because of the nuclear power plant disaster following the tsunami of March 11, 2011. The Guardian reported that there are 1,200 coal-fired power plants on the books in 59 countries with about three-quarters in China and India. India is planning to build 455 new plants with 363 on the drawing board in China.

Japan, South Korea, Guatemala, Cambodia, Morocco, Namibia, Senegal, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan and Taiwan have coal-fired plants but produce almost no coal so they have to import it. That means shipping and we know that the current fleet of ships is extremely dirty in its emissions.

It’s important to note that the Earth's atmosphere hasn't had this much carbon dioxide in it for millions of years. We didn’t have any monitoring until very recently so we have to rely on indirect measures.

Carbon dioxide, a heat-trapping greenhouse gas, remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. It is emitted by fossil-fueled vehicles and coal-fired factories and power plants as well as by natural activities such as breathing.

Reuters reports that, “Carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii are documented in a graph known as the Keeling Curve, named for Charles Keeling, who began measurements there in 1958, when the level was 317 ppm. Information on the Keeling Curve is available at keelingcurve.ucsd.edu.”(Image courtesy of Scripps Oceanography)

According to NOOA scientist Butler, “During the last 800,000 years, the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuated between 180 ppm and 280 ppm. With the widespread burning of coal and oil during the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of carbon dioxide rose to about 290 ppm by the end of the 19th century …”

NOAA has a terrific animated graph that shows the rise in Carbon Dioxide. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

According to the Washington Post, “One of the main concerns with climate change is that it’s causing the oceans to advance. Global sea levels have risen about seven inches over the past century and that pace is accelerating. Not only does this threaten coastal regions, but it also makes storm surges much worse — both for huge hurricanes like Sandy and for smaller storms too.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/01/can-we-stop-the-seas-from-rising-yes-but-less-than-you-think/

There is still a lot of skepticism about all of this, which is surprising given the consistent and repeated evidence that the oceans are warming, rising, and that this will very likely have pretty disastrous consequences for coastal areas. Many conservatives and Republicans reject the idea that such a tiny amount of CO2 in the air, 0.04 percent, can make much of a difference. Others argue that since there was more CO2 millions of years ago the changes we are seeing are not caused by humans but by natural cycles or processes. Thus, there has been vigorous pushback against many policies directed at reducing CO2 emissions.

The coal and other fossil fuel industry is particularly articulate and well funded through lobbying organizations they have created. The absence of fast replacement fuels to drive vehicles and generate electricity has also delayed more vigorous action to contain and drastically reduce human CO2 emissions.

The Post article confirms, “at this point, it’s unlikely that we could stop further rises altogether. That’s the upshot of a recent study from the National Center on Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The study estimated that aggressive steps to cut emissions could reduce the amount of sea-level rise by somewhere between 6 and 20 inches in 2100, compared with our current trajectory. That’s quite a bit. But sea levels will keep rising for centuries no matter what we do. We can’t stop it entirely. We can only slow the pace.”

There is sensational information on what will happen in worst case scenarios which, to be clear, are forward projections by as much as 200 years. That may seem like a long time but in the perspective of the planet Earth and even in the very short history of humans on the planet it is really just a very tiny slice of time.

What might happen then as we project the effects of sea level rise?

According to NCAR models, by 2300 the sea levels could rise as much as 34 feet. Geology.com has a great interactive map that shows the consequences -  interactive map. Some examples of what this means include South Florida, which would be largely under the ocean. Other major cities that are wet under these levels of sea-rise are New Orleans, Venice, San Francisco, Shanghai, and Bangladesh. Even the Netherlands would be under water and it’s the model of “holding back the sea.” In fact, the Netherlands is often cited as an example of what the US should be doing for example regarding protecting New York City from rising water and storm surge.

Another important consideration is the increasing acidification of the ocenas. NOAA puts it very succinctly.

"Air-sea gas exchange is a physio-chemical process, primarily controlled by the air-sea difference in gas concentrations and the exchange coefficient, which determines how quickly a molecule of gas can move across the ocean-atmosphere boundary. It takes about one year to equilibrate CO₂ in the surface ocean with atmospheric CO₂, so it is not unusual to observe large air-sea differences in CO₂ concentrations. Most of the differences are caused by variability in the oceans due to biology and ocean circulation. The oceans contain a very large reservoir of carbon that can be exchanged with the atmosphere because the CO₂ reacts with water to form carbonic acid and its dissociation products. As atmospheric CO₂ increases, the interaction with the surface ocean will change the chemistry of the seawater resulting in ocean acidification." http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Carbon+Uptake

The following figure illustrates the different processes that affect air-sea gas exchange (Courtesy of NOAA.)

Given these very significant factors it's clear that any study of coastal zones MUST begin with a discussion of CO2 levels, sea level rise, and it’s consequences. This is the Holy Grail of coastal science because it has potentially the most profound impact on the world’s coastal zones.

“It feels like the inevitable march toward disaster,” said Maureen E. Raymo, a scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, a unit of Columbia University quoted in the New York Times.  

That's pretty serious business.  The impact of elevated CO2 levels on coastal zones and on the oceans is of great significance for students of coastal policy and science as well as for policymakers who are expected to consider bold ways of addressing this problem.

"Oh, Poop. What a Problem!"

There is a common expression when things go wrong:"Oh, Sh*t!" I will call it "Oh, Poop!"

As students of coastal policy we should use that expression more often. Poop, precisely speaking sewage is one of the great challenges facing coastal scientists, managers, planners, and, of course, stakeholders (human and marine or coastal life).

This will be one of the longest blog postings ever but you could say that poop deserves this in depth treatment! So here goes. (An updated version of this will be in our forthcoming book on Coastal Issues; Coastal Solutions.

Sewage and Coastal Areas (Picture courtesy NOAA)

A rarely discussed coastal zone issue is sewage.

It was called to our attention when reports emerged that Superstorm Sandy resulted in the release of 11 billion gallons of sewage from East Coast treatment plants (mostly New York and New Jersey) into streams, canals or roadways, according to a report by Climate Central. The report said that “The amount of sewage overflow during Sandy, 11 billion gallons, is equivalent to the entire area of Central Park [in New York City] — 843 acres/1.4 square miles — stacked 41 feet high with sewage or more than 50 times the BP oil spill.” See also Bloomber at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/sandy-s-sewage-spill-said-equal-to-a-41-foot-central-park-flood.html

The report further said, “Sandy showed the extreme vulnerability of the region’s sewage treatment plants to rising seas and intense coastal storms,” said Alyson Kenward, lead author of the report. Most experts expect seas to rise between 2 to 4 feet by the end of the century even if aggressive actions are taken to control emissions of greenhouse gases. New York and New Jersey officials estimate the cost of repairing damaged sewage infrastructure at about $3 billion. Many more billions will be needed to fortify and modify treatment plants to withstand the impact of future storms.” http://www.climatecentral.org/news/11-billion-gallons-of-sewage-overflow-from-hurricane-sandy-15924

In May of 2013 a fire hit a major New York sewage treatment plant. The New York Times reported, “The rivers that run into New York Harbor will be unfit for recreational activities at least through Sunday because of a catastrophic fire that shut down one of the city’s largest sewage treatment plants, the city’s health department said Thursday [May 2, 2013]”

New York, like all American cities and most around the world dumped its raw sewage directly into rivers, canals and the ocean. That’s a reminder of how much we disrespected our waterways and coasts throughout history when they were seen as transportation routes, garbage dumps and sewers.

New York built 14 sewage treatment facilities with money from the Clean Water Act (CWA) passed by Congress in 1972. The act established targets for eliminating the releases of high levels of toxic substances into water and amended in 1983 and 1985 to eliminate further pollution.

One of the key features of the Act is the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES), a permit system for regulating point source pollution. Point source pollution includes industrial facilities such as manufacturing, mining, oil and gas extraction, and service industries; municipal governments and other government facilities including military bases; and agricultural facilities especially animal feedlots.

Part of the CWA included funding for sewage treatment facilities that include federal and state funding. The cost of sewage treatment especially on small municipalities is often prohibitive and represents one of the great challenges to improving America’s water quality. In coastal zones this still represents a serious problem. The reason is that water treatment is often located on the coast or on rivers and other aqueous ecosystems. That is primarily because the concept is still that is or when a spill happens it will go into the water, which will eventually dilute the raw sewage.

Climate Central explains that, “Sewage treatment plants are usually placed near water in low-lying areas so that sewage can be piped to the plant via gravity and treated sewage can be easily discharged into receiving waters. These key factors in plant locations make them especially vulnerable to storm surges and coastal flooding. Compounding the inherent risk of their low-lying locations, many treatment plants have expansive, underground labyrinths of pipes, holding tanks and pumps that can remain waterlogged and incapacitated long after floodwaters recede. They also typically discharge their treated wastewater through large underwater pipes, which can cause facilities to flood from the inside as waters rise, long before the surface water levels overrun the outside of the structures.” That is true not just in the United States but in any city around the world that is located on the coast.

New York City has nearly 600 miles of coastline and these were once pristine, then became completely polluted, and eventually cleaned up and made useable for humans and marine life friendly again.

The San Diego UT reported on a spill caused by an earthquake. “A spill of more than 1.5 million gallons of raw sewage in Playas de Tijuana prompted the Tuesday closure of beaches on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. The incident was the result of damage to a large pipe known as the Farallon Collector, which is located about three-fourths of a mile south of the international border. The damage apparently was caused by Sunday’s earthquake swarm centered about 90 miles away in Brawley, Baja California authorities reported.” Aug. 28, 2012 http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/aug/28/tj-sewage-spill-fouls-coast-near-border/

Two million gallons of partially treated sewage and storm water were dumped into the San Francisco Bay in 2008. The cause was not a fire in the engine room but a pump failure accompanied by a failure of the alarm system that is supposed to immediately warn operators.

Most of us have forgotten that the City of Los Angeles was sued in 2003 by local environmental groups including the Santa Monica Baykeeper and by state and federal officials because of 3,670 sewage spills over a ten-year period. Think of that number of spills. It’s enormous and the impact on the environment unconscionable. The city admitted liability for these spills. A federal judge ruled that these spills were in violation of the Clean Water Act.

In 1987 ten beaches in the New York City area were closed when hundreds of thousands of gallons of raw sewage flowed into Hempstead Harbor as a result of a pump failure at a sewage treatment plant.

In 1988, over 9.5 million gallons of untreated sewage flowed into New Bedford Harbor, Massachusetts. As is frequently the case the cause was a power failure at a city sewage treatment plant. According to the Associated Press, “The spill forced the closing of 500 acres of shellfish beds by the state Division of Fisheries and Wildlife. The plant, built in 1970, has broken down frequently and ''is one of the major lemons of the waste water treatment business,'' Mayor John K. Bullard said.

One of my students recently did a study of Florida sewage issues. She found an article Sewage spills on the rise in Southwest Florida, which reported that “Major plumbing failures and accidents sent nearly 17 million gallons of raw sewage — enough to cover a square mile with waste a foot deep — cascading into Southwest Florida neighborhood streets and vital waterways.” The Herald-Tribune


This is a disturbing picture in a state that relies on tourism and retirees who move to Florida for the beauty of the environment and the climate. It is there fore even more disturbing to realize that Florida has been doing very little to address the Problem. The Herald-Tribune reported that, “Individually, the spills tend to be dismissed by utilities and government officials as a temporary nuisance. While most are small and swiftly contained, cumulatively they amount to a nasty mess that threatens public health and the environment. Despite the damage, government regulators seldom crack down on offenders. The Florida Department of Environmental Protection imposed no fines for the worst effluent spill in six years — a 30-million-gallon release of reclaimed water that flooded a Pasco County community in 2010. The recent Tampa spill, the worst sewage release in six years, drew a state fine of just $30,500.”

The California Coastkeeper Alliance avers that, “Raw sewage spills pose serious threats to public and waterway health. These spills are frequent, are occasionally quite large and add up; nearly 28 million gallons of sewage spilled into California's waterways in just over the first two years of collecting data on leaking sewage collection and transport systems alone. Over 300 water bodies in California are impaired by nutrients or bacteria; it is not a coincidence that over 14,000 known septic systems are located within 600 feet of these impaired waterways.” http://www.cacoastkeeper.org/programs/clean-abundant/sewage-spills

Worldwatch Institute reports that, “297 cities in China have not yet built adequate sewage treatment plants, an official with the Ministry of Construction reported. Of these nearly 300 cities, 63 are larger urban areas, including 8 with populations of more than 500,000.” Without adequate facilities to treat their sewage, cities either release this waste untreated into nearby rivers or dump it onto surrounding farmlands. The shortage of high-quality water has become a serious issue in many localities, and water pollution continues to threaten both public health and living standards.” Of course, many of those  rivers and the runoff from farms eventually makes its way to the coast, the beaches, wetlands, and the sea. Moreover, as is tradition, coastal villages and cities directly use the ocean to dump their sewage. http://www.worldwatch.org/nearly-300-chinese-cities-lack-sewage-treatment

The World Bank reports that Globally, an estimated 2.6 billion people lack access to adequate sanitation including clean water and sewage treatment and disposal. They also report that every day, 6,000 children die from diseases associated with inadequate sanitation, poor hygiene, and unsafe water. Diarrhea alone kills one child every 20 seconds. http://water.worldbank.org/topics/sanitation-and-hygiene

The reality is that sewage is a tricky problem. It caught our attention that, “Dubai's Burj Khalifa is the tallest free-standing structure in the world. It also has a serious sewage problem.” It is also the tallest freestanding structure in the world, and it features an elevator that travels the longest distance in the world. So it is a marvel of superlatives except for raw sewage. Salon continues by reporting that the building produces roughly 15 tons of total sewage every day. And most interesting is the fact that the sewage is loaded into trucks which then line up to dispose of the sewage at a treatment facility. Often they sit for as much as a full day in line before being able to unload the huge amount of waste. This practice is not limited to Dubai. In many countries including India waste disposal is not a pubic utility or public good. Buildings are expected to collect and dispose of sewage at their expense. It is not too hard to imagine that the companies involved in such disposal may not want to incur great expense and so will find the most convenient way to get rid of the sewage. We know from many, many case studies that this usually is rivers, marshes, and the ocean.
http://www.salon.com/2012/12/29/worlds_tallest_and_smelliest_building/


 So as we said, sewage, poop, is an extremely complex challenge and worse of all because of gravity most of it ends up in our rivers, wetlands, marshes, deltas, bays, tributaries, and ultimately beaches and the ocean. Then it becomes OUR real, urgent problem as coastal scientists and managers.

Superstorm Sandy Contd.

Coastal Disaster: Superstorm Sandy

Steffen Schmidt

One of the topics we revisit constantly in the online Coastal Policy and Politics class I teach every summer are marine and coastal debris. It is one of the consistent issues that interest us from a scientific point of view. It’s also a major concern for ocean and coastal managers. See my blog http://coastalzonemanagement.blogspot.com/

For example, USA Today reported, “Officials estimate that [Superstorm] Sandy created more than 10 million cubic yards of debris in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut — enough to fill the old Giants Stadium more than four times.” http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/12/13/sandy-debris-cleanup-trash/1761375/ WLTX.com reports that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has pulled 90,000 potentially hazardous items from the New York City rubble alone.

Day to day human activity produces lots of trash and debris on the best of days. We know about all the plastic bottles, straws, cans and a host of other “stuff” that human beings discard and that washes out to sea and unto beaches all over the US and the world. That’s at the level of concern about “litter” along roads and highways, a problem we have been attacking for decades now with education campaigns, fines for littering, and very organized cleanup efforts.

But then we have the massive and truly challenging debris volume that’s created by storms, tornados, earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes. Here the scale is massive and the cleanup and disposal a true challenge.

Hurricane Katrina created roughly 100 million cubic yards of debris spread out specifically over the city of New Orleans and surrounding towns, the state of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and a number of other states. It’s not just this massive volume of trash and damage that’s daunting. It’s the content of the debris that poses such an enormous challenge.

Human beings produce all kinds of stuff that, when used appropriately and according to label instructions, can be at least tolerably safe. When these things suddenly “go wild” as I call it, there will be deep, deep trouble.

One example is energy. In the past we used wood to heat, cook, and light. That was biodegradable. Now we use all kinds of oils and fuels. And, just think of those new and energy efficient CFL light bulbs that we have all been using more and more and that will soon be the only bulb produced and sold. What if you break one of these?

The Environmental Protection Agency instructions: "Fluorescent light bulbs contain a very small amount of mercury sealed within the glass tubing. 1. Open a window and leave the room (restrict access) for at least 15 minutes. 2. Remove all materials you can without using a vacuum cleaner. Wear disposable rubber gloves, if available (do not use your bare hands). 3. Place all cleanup materials in a plastic bag and seal it..

WOW! Now think of hundreds of thousands of these bulbs broken by Superstorm Sandy!

US News.NBCNews.com reported that at a Queens, New York park the EPA workers “don full-body suits and gas masks and then attack the toxic soup of debris." Imagine that. A city park so contaminated that it becomes a HAZMAT zone!  The report said that these workers then, “… scramble through the piles of debris to pick out hazardous materials like aerosol cans and electrical appliances. Other EPA workers test the air for a range of hazards including bacteria, viruses and fungal agents, hazardous fumes, and lead paint." http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/17/15240017-sandy-debris-piles-up-at-queens-park-4500-tons-and-counting?lite

To conclude, the crisis of coastal and beach debris, waste, and garbage is big enough under normal circumstances. Under a sudden crisis scenario such as Superstorm Sandy it becomes an unimaginable task. And Sandy was only one storm in a string of very bad coastal storms and we expect that it was not the last.

Sandy's kinetic energy for storm surge and wave "destruction potential" reached 5.8 on the NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's scale (0-6), the highest ever measured. Sandy caused at least $315 million in damage in the Caribbean and as much as $100 billion in the US.

For more information please contact me at coastal@iastate.edu

Suggested graphic: The "before" and after at Mantoloking, New Jersey or Staten Island New York -  http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/weeklynews/nov12/ngs-sandy-imagery.html

  Run your curser over the picture to see before and after. (see below courtesy NOAA)

The Crisis of Ocean and Coastal Debris

If you are interested in taking my Coastal Politics and Policy FOR FREE please e mail me at coastal@iastate.edu BUT, You will NOT get academic credit from Iowa State University unless you register for credit. The class is 100% on line and runs for six weeks in May/June 2013.

Image courtesy of EPA

(c) Steffen and Paul Schmidt, 2013. This blog post is the draft chapter from our forthcoming book Coatsal Issues, Coastal Solutions.

One of the topics we revisit constantly in or classes on coastal policy is marine and coastal debris.

It is one of the consistent issues that interest us from a scientific point of view. It’s also a major concern for ocean and coastal managers.

USA Today reported, “Officials estimate that Sandy created more than 10 million cubic yards of debris in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut — enough to fill the old Giants Stadium more than four times.” http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/12/13/sandy-debris-cleanup-trash/1761375/

Day to day human activity produces lots of trash and debris on the best of days. We know about all the plastic bottles, straws, cans and a host of other “stuff” that human beings discard and that washes out to sea and unto beaches all over the US and the world. That’s at the level of concern about “litter” along roads and highways, a problem we have been attacking for decades now with education campaigns, fines for littering, and very organized cleanup efforts. We even have “adopt a highway” programs where clubs and organizations can adopt a stretch of read and periodically go out and collect and properly dispose of trash. And of course there are beach cleanup programs too numerous to itemize here.

But then we have the massive and truly challenging debris volume that’s created by storms, tornado's, earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes. Here the scale is massive and the cleanup and disposal a true challenge. Only professionals and hundreds of millions of dollars can attack this scale.

Hurricane Katrina created roughly 100 million cubic yards of debris spread out specifically over the city of New Orleans and surrounding towns, the state of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and a number of other states.

It’s not just this massive volume of trash and damage that’s daunting. It’s the content of the debris that poses such an enormous challenge.

Human beings produce all kinds of stuff that, when used appropriately and according to label instructions, can be at least tolerably safe. When this all suddenly “goes wild” as I call it, there is deep, deep trouble.

In the past we used wood to heat, cook, and light. That was biodegradable to the nth degree. Now, just think of those new and energy efficient CFL light bulbs that we have all been using more and more and that, if the federal government has its way, will be the only bulbs produced and sold. What if you break one of these?

Here are the full EPA instructions:

What to Do if a Compact Fluorescent Light Bulb Breaks

Fluorescent light bulbs contain a very small amount of mercury sealed within the glass tubing. EPA recommends the following clean up and disposal guidelines:

1. Open a window and leave the room (restrict access) for at least 15 minutes.
2. Remove all materials you can without using a vacuum cleaner.
• Wear disposable rubber gloves, if available (do not use your bare hands).
• Carefully scoop up the fragments and powder with stiff paper or cardboard.
• Wipe the area clean with a damp paper towel or disposable wet wipe.
• Sticky tape (such as duct tape) can be used to pick up small pieces and powder.
3. Place all cleanup materials in a plastic bag and seal it.
• If your state permits you to put used or broken fluorescent light bulbs in the garbage, seal the bulb in two plastic bags and put into the outside trash (if no other disposal or recycling options are available).
• Wash your hands after disposing of the bag.
4. The first time you vacuum the area where the bulb was broken, remove the vacuum bag once done cleaning the area (or empty and wipe the canister) and put the bag and/or vacuum debris, as well as the cleaning materials, in two sealed plastic bags in the outdoor trash or protected outdoor location for normal disposal.

Now imagine hundreds of thousands of these bulbs broken by Superstorm Sandy!

WLTX.com reports that the Environmental Protection Agency has pulled 90,000 potentially hazardous items from the New York City rubble alone. Go through your house and look at all the stuff there is. Household cleaners with warnings, propane tanks, oil and gas containers in the garage, electronics full of exotic and highly dangerous metals, and those mercury infused light bulbs CFL’s mentioned above that are intended to save the environment.

US News.NBCNews.com reported that at a Queens New York park the EPA workers “don full-body suits and gas masks” and then attack the toxic soup of debris. Imagine that. A city park so contaminated that it becomes a HAZMAT zone after a storm!  The report said that these workers then, “… scramble through the piles of debris to pick out hazardous materials like aerosol cans and electrical appliances. Other EPA workers test the air for a range of hazards including bacteria, viruses and fungal agents, hazardous fumes, and lead paint. Workers on the site are drawing on experiences from Hurricane Katrina and the devastating tornado that hit Joplin, Mo.“ http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/17/15240017-sandy-debris-piles-up-at-queens-park-4500-tons-and-counting?lite

Now also consider the structures of homes and businesses, many of which are old and probably contain lead paint and asbestos which has now all been broken out of its confinement and is out there posing an unspeakable threat to coastal communities, beaches, marshes and the ocean. Add to that common coastal hazard sites especially boat yards and marinas which have a dense population of vessels all with fuels and chemicals, and the painting and repair facilities common to boatyards which are also filled with specific and highly flammable or poisonous products. There are electric transformers, generators and other equipment that may be high risk.

Add to that MASSIVE numbers of trees down which may be sitting and soaking in the toxic soup discussed here. Those and wood debris from homes 92x4’s, plywood, etc. are run through gigantic chippers and turned into a product – wood chips. – These chips are then given away to towns and countries to use in landscaping or sometimes to individuals for the same use.

The obvious debris fields, and that’s what these are just like when a pane crashes, are on thing. Actual communities and neighborhoods are relatively dense debris locations and you can concentrate a retrieval and disposal force on those locations. Another problem are remote and unconcentrated areas such as fields, woods, marshes, estuaries, wetlands, and other locations where huge amounts of debris has been scattered. Just picture what job retrieval looks like in those places.

Now comes part two of this nightmare.

Assuming that you get all this mass of material collected and sorted where do you put it?

On the best of days we have a real landfill and waste disposal crisis in the United States. There are books written on this! For example Earth's Garbage Crisis (What If We Do Nothing?) by Christiane Dorion; Rush to Burn: Solving America's Garbage Crisis? By

Newsday Inc.; The Waste Crisis: Landfills, Incinerators, and the Search for a Sustainable Future, Hans Y. Tammemagi. “Chapters discuss garbage through the ages, the age of consumerism and the waste explosion, integrated waste management, recycling and composting, waste characteristics, alternative disposal methods (existing and abandoned mines, landfill reclamation to extend the lifespan of old dumps, ocean dumping, deep-well injection, deep injection of liquid waste in cement slurry form, sub-seabed disposal), incineration issues, containment and encapsulation …”

The book, Rubbish! Dirt On Our Hands and Crisis Ahead, by Richard Girling which is described as, “This is the story of our rubbish [garbage to Americans] — from the first human bowel movement to the littering of outer space. It is an investigation of the looming problem of waste in the 21st century — our fridge mountain; our crumbling sewers; trading waste; packaging waste; the enormity of our industrial waste; spam emails and new forms of waste; horrors of incineration . . . And it is an attempt to find a blueprint for our survival: the way our lives may have to change.”

Yeah it’s that bad!  And it’s that complicated.

This is a growing problem around the world. If you’ve ever been to islands, say in the Caribbean or South Pacific, you realize what a daunting challenge waste disposal has become. When we’ve sailed in these remote places one of the biggest problems is where to dispose of the boat garbage. In most venues “boat boys” come by and for a fee will take it away. We all know that they go just around the bend and dump it on the beach or in the ocean. When we cruisers and sailors try to dispose of it ourselves the monumental challenge becomes even more clear.

On the small Bahamian island of Normans key there is an abandoned resort that once belonged to legendary Colombian drug cartel leader Carlos Lehder. The property is in legal dispute. On shore next to the anchorage where the fuselages of crashed planes that tried to make drug run landings at night still stick out of the bay, there is a concrete structure. No doubt it was once a waterfront bar and restaurant from the resort. Inside the sailors have dumped their black plastic garbage bags because all said it is the least bad place to dispose. 

Dumping or burning used to be the only way anyone disposed of trash.

In Iowa for example, farmers had a ravine or area by a creek or river that was the junk and garbage pile. My son used to spend many hours on a nice day at the site near or farm and dig through, finding and bringing home all kinds of treasure – old toys, discarded tools, and fancy glass bottles some still with liquid in them. Who knows what all these sites contained. This was before the words “ecosystems” and “environmentalism” were invented. It was a time when in the transition from a world of natural garbage – wood, food scraps, cloth and paper – we slid almost imperceptibly into a world of chemicals. Only recently did we discover the disastrous effects those will have on the environment, the health of animals and plants, and our own well being.

Those who want to abolish the EPA seem to ignore the fact that their lives and the lives of future generations would be at terrible risk if someone didn’t look after the proper management, disposal, or prohibition of these many deadly products. The EPA may have been overzealous here and there in their enforcement regulations but overall without a monitor we wouldn’t even have a canary in the mine to warn us of coming disaster.

To conclude, the crisis of debris, waste, and garbage is big enough under normal circumstances. Under a sudden crisis scenario such as Superstorm Sandy it becomes an unimaginable task. And Sandy was only one storm in a string of very bad coastal storms and we expect that it was not the last.

Is "Retreat" from Risky Coastal Areas the Answer?

NOAA GOES-13 image of Sandy at 6:02 a.m. EDT Tuesday (Oct. 30).
CREDIT: NOAA/NASA GOES Project

"New York and New Jersey residents, just coming to grips with the enormous costs of repairing homes damaged or destroyed by Hurricane Sandy, will soon face another financial blow: soaring flood insurance rates and heightened standards for rebuilding that threaten to make seaside living, once and for all, a luxury only the wealthy can afford." New York Times

We know that coastal communities are high risk locations.

Over many centuries coastal settlements and infrastructure has come under threat from storms and from storm surge.

The death toll was estimated between 8,000-12,000in a category 4 hurricane that hit Galveston, Texas on September 8, 1900. There was no warning system, and while people left the barrier island and resort most thought it was just a big thunderstorm. This deadliest hurricane in American history. So many people died that, "Funeral pyres were set up wherever the dead were found and burned for weeks after the storm. The authorities passed out free whiskey to sustain the distraught men conscripted for the gruesome work of collecting and burning the dead." Olafson, Steve (August 28, 2000). "Unimaginable devastation: Deadly storm came with little warning". Houston Chronicle.

'The Lake Okeechobee hurricane of 1928 was enormous. "As the category 4 hurricane moved inland, the strong winds piled the water up at the south end of the lake, ultimately topping the levee and rushing out onto the fertile land. Thousands of people, mostly non-white migrant farm workers, drowned as water several feet deep spread over an area approximately 6 miles deep and 75 miles long around the south end of the lake," according to the NOAA history of this event. The memorial report continues, "the effect of the flood was devastating, and the loss of life, both human and animal, was apocalyptic. Damages from this hurricane were estimated around 25 million dollars which, normalized for population, wealth, and inflation, would be around 16 billion dollars today (Landsea, 2002)."

Of course Katrina is the hurricane that grabbed all of our attention. On August 29, 2005, this category 5 storm hit New Orleans and the Gulf States with devastating impact on the city and its residents. Katrina took roughly 1,833 lives and cost $60 billion in insured losses (including flood damage) and cost the Gulf Coast states as a whole plus or minus $125 billion.

The so-called "Superstorm" Sandy on October 29, 2012 curved north-northwest and moved ashore near Atlantic City, New Jersey. It was not called a "hurricane" anymore but instead designated as a "post-tropical cyclone" albeit with hurricane-force winds. After causing damage and deaths in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the Bahamas it became a surprising and astonishing monster. Sandy affected 24 states as far as Wisconsin, killed roughly 131 people and cost roughly $71 billion in the latest estimates although I believe that's low. It flooded New York City tunnels and parts of the subway system for the first time  in history.

One of the suggestions made by several of our colleagues is to "retreat" from the beach, from barrier islands, and from dangerous coastal areas.

The question for you is this. "Is retreat from the coast a realistic solution?"

When you look at the long span of history of the American coastal zones storms with their wind, rain, and brutal storm surge have been a reality of living, building, and doing business on the coast.

You need to do this exercise. Examine all of the cities, roads, bridges, private homes, resorts, railroad tracks, airports (think La Guardia), ports, military bases, subways, power stations, factories, shopping malls, casinos, condos, gas stations, and other facilities that are now on the coast.

Now calculate: From the tip of Texas to Main how much would it cost and where would you move all of these people and infrastructure?

Finally, answer this question: How much retreat is realistic and how would policymakers implement it as a federal and state policy?



 

   

Projected Sea level rises in various American cities

We recently reviewed a wonderful web site at the New York Times that allows you to visualize in maps how much flooding would take place in various American cities under different time frames (in years) and scenarios of extent of rise based on historical records (from long, LONG ago) as well as current scientific calculations based on rising temperatures.

This is what the slider looks like that gives you scenario choices:

The maps are very visually compelling because they show under water land in light blue so you can actually imagine what the flooding would do to, say Charleston, South Carolina which under the worst scenario (25 ft rise) would be 80% flooded or Galveston, Texas which wouyld essentially be history - 100% under water.

The follwing is a partial screen shot of what these maps look like:

In the first partial frame you can see that Miami Beach is gone. Remember it's a barrier island so that's not surprising. But more daunting is that 39% of New York City would be flooded, something that seemed ridiculous a few years ago but is now not so far fetched after "Superstorm" Sandy.

Here are some flooding percentages based on the 100-300 year five foot projection:

• Miami is 20% flooded; Miami Beach 94% under water
• In Boston the city of Cambridge is 26% flooded
• While only 5% of Long Island, New York floods, "Barrier islands start to submerge; other islands in Middle and East Bays disappear. Shore of main island moves inland." You think Hurricane Sandy was devastating! You should look at the map of LI.
• Not surprisingly New Orleans 88% is flooded and that's a city that has been armored with levies dykes, and a massive pumping system. 
• In Tampa, Florida "Tampa Bay pushes inland one to four miles and eats away at MacDill Air Force Base. Beach communities flood."

For policymakers and students of Coastal Zone Management these numbers are at the very least interesting. We would add that they are actually critically important because ignoring data and science does not make bad things go away (just ask smokers who ignore the warnings.)

The real difficulty is that for politicians it is almost impossible to take significant action which would displace and move people and human structures from the threatened areas. The problem is that first of all no one believes any of this applies to THEM and second, it's a hundred years or a hundred THOUSAND years from now so "who cares!"

We have interviewed dozens of local government officials all of whom have expressed doubt that proactive action is realistic. People and local governments are simply too welded to their property and their beach/coastal location which they, of course deeply love.

If you want to play with this app you can go to http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/24/opinion/sunday/what-could-disappear.html

The maps are based on the following assumptions: "Notes: These maps are based on elevation data from the U.S. Geological Survey and tidal level data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Maps show the extent of potential flooding relative to local high tide.

The 25-foot sea level rise is based on a 2012 study in the journal Science, which augmented findings from a 2009 Nature study. They found that 125,000 years ago — a period that may have been warmer than today but cooler than what scientists expect later this century without sharp pollution cuts — the seas were about 20 to 30 feet higher than today. If temperatures climb as expected in this century, scientists believe it would take centuries for seas to rise 20 to 30 feet as a result, because ice sheet decay responds slowly to warming."

Coastal Lessons from a Superstorm

What we can learn from "Superstorm" Sandy

If you still wondered whether the coastal zones are at risk we assume that "Superstorm" Sandy, which hit the Northeast of the United States of America in November 2012, has convinced you.

 Here is a good description of the aftermath of this storm.

Sandy courtesy of NOAA

“More than 8 million people lost power, the result of wind, flooding and heavy snow. New York City's intricate subway system suffered the most extensive damage in its 108-year history. The New York Stock Exchange closed for two consecutive days, the first time that had happened because of weather since 1888. The surf in New York Harbor reached a record 32.5 feet -- 6.5 feet taller than a wave spawned by Hurricane Irene. A record high water level also was set at Battery Park in Manhattan, where the surge peaked at 13.88 feet.

Damage estimates put the cost of the storm around $50 billion, the second costliest storm in history, behind Hurricane Katrina.

At least 23 states felt the effects of Sandy, which morphed from a hurricane into a wintry superstorm stretching nearly 600 miles. Sandy was so big, forecasters said, that if it had been a country it would have ranked as the 20th-largest in the world.”  CNN US. http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/04/us/sandy-survivors-victims-narrative/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

What is the takeaway?

First of all, coastal living is NOT all about balmy breezes, gentle breakers, sandy beaches, and chill. Well, sometimes it is but all of that can change overnight because the ocean is a powerful force and weather systems can make it angry, destructive, and deadly.

Second, our infrastructure, building codes, and regulations are now outdated IF there is real climate change coming. A significant part of New York City was flooded including subways and tunnels. Moreover, electrical systems which are underground in New York were inundated, hospitals lost power, backup generators failed because they had been installed wrong.

A brouhaha also exploded over the loss of electrical power. “Damage from Superstorm Sandy to the electricity system in the U.S. Northeast exposed deep flaws in the structure and regulation of power utilities that will require a complete redesign, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said. But at least some members of one utility oversight panel later fired back, saying it was the governor who should take responsibility. "We're going to have to look at a ground-up redesign," Cuomo said while criticizing the utilities he called virtual monopolies run by nameless and faceless bureaucrats.” http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/nys-gov-cuomo-blasts-utilities-for-sandy-outages

Decades of regulation went dawn the drain so to speak when Sandy punished the local ecosystems with the storm dumping of fuel, toxic chemicals, litter, garbage, debris, asbestos, and every kind of dangerous, damaging flotsam into the ocean, beaches, coast, wetlands, and rivers.

For students of coastal policy this storm was a tragic but perfect case study of all the interconnected factors that constitute the challenge of Coastal Zone Management (CZM).

Recovery: Many agencies at the local, county, state and federal level are involved in responding to a coastal disaster. Private charities and non-profits as well as the Red Cross also mobilize.

Then there is NOAA. “NOAA continues to work in partnership with other federal, state, and local partners in response to the devastation of Hurricane Sandy. NOAA’s efforts are focused on navigation surveys to restore maritime commerce; aerial surveys to assist in those efforts and to aid on-the-ground responders from FEMA and local authorities; and in oil spill cleanup and damage assessment.  NOAA’s National Weather Service is also keeping authorities aware of changing weather conditions that could impact recovery and response efforts.” http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/weeklynews/oct12/nos-response-sandy.html